As an advisor to some of the world’s largest companies, it’s
my job to keep up with advances in technology.
I’m paid to answer questions like, “what’s after cloud?” I’ve thought a
lot about this very question and I’ve formed my answer: “More Cloud”. I believe that many new innovations will be packaged as 'cloud' and the combined ecosystem of innovation will outweigh other non-server side contenders.
Clouds promote increased automation, computing efficiency
and increased service levels. Public clouds add the outsourcing model, while
private clouds leverage existing infrastructure. Despite the value clouds
offer, investments made in cloud computing by both vendors and buyers have been
insignificant relative to the size of the opportunity. I believe that the next
several decades will be dominated by
a single computing paradigm: cloud.
From Structured
Programming to Cloud Elasticity
The magic of cloud is
the ability of a service to provision additional computing capacity to solve
the problem without the user being aware.
Cloud offerings are divided into sub-systems that perform a specific
function and can be called over a network via a well-defined interface. For the
uninitiated, we call this a service-oriented architecture (SOA). Cloud offers a
variety of services such as compute-as-a-service and database-as-a-service. The
service-oriented approach allows an implementer to swap-out the internals of a
service without impacting the users. This concept is borrowed from prior art
(structured programming, OOD, CBD, etc.) While SOA extends prior paradigms to
embrace distributed computing, cloud extends SOA to solve issues related the
quality attributes or non-functional concerns such as scalability and
availability. Cloud services respond to requests from various users/consumers
where each request varies in complexity to the point where the amount
computational power needed to satisfy the request will vary over time.
Encapsulated
Innovation
The as-a-service model encapsulates (or hides) new
innovations behind the service interface. For example, when Solid State Drives
began delivering fast IO access at competitive prices, cloud storage services
began using them under the covers. When new patterns and algorithms are
invented we see them turned into as-a-Service offerings:
- Map reduce becomes the AWS Elastic MapReduce Service
- Dynamo and eventual consistency become AWS Dynamo / MongoDB-aaS
- Dremel becomes Google Big Query
Significant innovations will continue to unfold but the
vehicle for delivering those innovations will be as-a-Service (SOA) with
elastic infrastructure (cloud). Said another way, cloud will be awarded the
credit for innovation because it is the delivery vehicle of the
innovation. This might seem like an
inappropriate assignment of credit but in many cases the cloud model may be the
only practical means of delivering highly complex, infrastructure intensive
solutions. For example, setting up a large Hadoop farm is impractical for many
users, but using one that is already in place (e.g., AWS EMR) brings the
innovation to the masses. In this sense, the cloud isn’t the innovation but it
is the agent that ignites its viability.
Metcalfe’s Law
A cloud is a collection of nodes that interact across
multiple layers (e.g., security, recovery, etc.) As the collection of nodes
grow, so does the value of the cloud. If this sounds familiar, it’s rooted in
network theory (Metcalfe’s Law, Reed’s Law, etc.) To liberally paraphrase,
these Laws state that the value of the network increases as more nodes, users
and content are added to the network. I’d argue that the same model holds true
for cloud: As the size of a cloud grows (machines, users, as-a-Service
offerings) the value of the cloud grows proportionately. Any solution that is able to accumulate value
in a non-linear fashion becomes very difficult to replace. The traditional
killer of network value propositions is when a new innovation kills the
original, or when the network gets dirty (too costly, too complicated, etc.).
In theory, SOA and the Cloud delivery model exhibit inherent properties that
counter these concerns.
Incremental Funding
A significant attribute of cloud is that it grows
‘horizontally’. This means that a cloud operator can add another server or
storage system incrementally. Unlike the mainframe, you can grow a cloud by
using small, inexpensive units. This characteristic encourages long-term
growth. Anyone who has had to fight for
I.T. budget will recognize the importance of being able to leverage agile
funding models. It’s more than a nicety; it’s a Darwinian survival method
during depressed times. Cloud, like a cockroach, will be able to survive the
harshest of environments.
Data Gravity (Before
and After)
Dave McCrory suggested the concept of Data Gravity: “Data
Gravity is a theory around which data has mass.
As data (mass) accumulates, it begins to have gravity. This Data Gravity pulls services and
applications closer to the data. This attraction (gravitational force) is
caused by the need for services and applications to have higher bandwidth
and/or lower latency access to the data.” McCrory’s concept suggests an
initial barrier to cloud adoption (moving data to the cloud), but also suggests
that once it has been moved, more data will be accumulated, increasing the
difficulty to move off of the cloud. This model jives with modern engineering
belief that it’s better to move the application logic to the data, rather than
the reverse. As clouds accumulate data,
Data Gravity suggests that even more data (and logic) will accumulate.
The Centralization-Decentralization Debate
One of my first managers told me that I.T. goes through
cycles of centralization and decentralization. At the time he mentioned it, we
were moving from mainframes to client/server. He noted that when control was
moved too far out of ones control there would be a natural reaction to remove
power from the central authority and to regain enough power to solve your
problem. Of course, cloud attempts to balance this concern. The cloud is usually
considered a centralized model due to the homogenous nature of the data
centers, servers, etc. However, the self-service aspect of cloud attempts to
push power to the end user. Cloud is
designed to be the happy medium between centralized and decentralized; only
time will tell if it satisfies this issue.
In summary, I believe that multiple large innovations are
coming but many, if not most, will be buried behind an as-a-Service interface
and we’ll call them cloud. When I watch TV, I’m rarely aware of the innovations
in the cameras, editing machines, satellites or other key elements of the
ecosystem. From my perspective, TV just keeps getting better (it’s magic). The
cloud encapsulates innovation in a similar manner. In some ways, it is
unfortunate new innovations will be buried by the delivery model but in
fundamentally, it’s this very abstraction that will ensure its survival and
growth.
