Looking back on my 2014 Cloud Predictions

Here's my self-review of my predictions made one year ago:

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1. Amazon Web Services will continue to dominate as the leading provider of infrastructure-on-demand services. Like 2013, the number of new offerings will be smaller than previous years as much of the low-hanging fruit has been picked. More emphasis will go into stabilization and features to enable highly reliable computing (across regions).
>> Correct, but this one was too easy. 

2. In 2014, we will see OpenStack adoption in the enterprise in a more significant way. This will be both a blessing and a curse. Corporate Infrastructure & Operations teams will be challenged to create stable solutions around OpenStack. The premature release of poor products/code like Ceilometer, Heat and even Neutron will cause unnecessary pain. I&O teams will retreat to the most basic functionality. Those organizations who chose to use the open source bits and not license a commercial product based on OpenStack will rethink their decision. Issues related to a lack of quality and product management will continue to plague OpenStack throughout 2014, leaving the door wide open to VMware.
>> Partially correct. IMHO, OpenStack saw more adoption by service providers while traditional enterprise dipped their toes in the water. And yes, the door was left wide open to VMware.

3. Organizations that were unhappy with the VMware software licensing fees remain unhappy but begin to see it as the 'stable solution'.
>> Correct. 

4. The excitement around containers continues to grow in 2013. The Docker model moves beyond early adopters into early majority for dev/test workloads. The way in which Chef/Puppet are used shifts from run-time stack creation to design-time creation, followed by image snapshots. This extends the emphasis on 'idempotent infrastructure'.
>> Correct. 

5. As 'idempotent infrastructure' for individual machines begins to feel like a solved problem, the focus shifts to multi-tiered, complex application architectures. A new emphasis is placed on orchestrating full stack solutions regardless of cloud API, hypervisor, operating system and configuration management tool. On-demand, full stack provisioning across dev-to-prod environments becomes doable by your average Joe. That said, TOSCA fails to get any traction due to unnecessary complexity, lack of practical applications and are beat to market by light-weight open source solutions.
>> Correct. We saw a bunch of Docker orchestrators emerge; perhaps too many. 

6. More aggressive organizations implement resilience features into their cloud architectures. Systems move beyond the traditional auto-scale and adopt patterns to auto-heal tiers via closed loop monitors that re-provision failed systems and tiers implement run-time service discovery (to reconnect the topology).
>> #FAIL. This was wishful thinking on my part. I need to quit doing that. 

7. As resilient architecture become more common, so does the need to test them. Variation of the Simian Army enter the Global 2000; instrumented systems capture data key metrics (MTTR, data loss, etc.) enabling architects to improve the integrity and availability of their solutions.
>> Again, #FAIL.

8. The Hybrid Grid is born. Unlike prior grid emphasis, the focus is on long-running services (not batch jobs). Unlike Hybrid Clouds, the focus is on uniform containers (think LXC/Docker) and resource schedulers that are "service first" not "machine first" enabling the grid controller to offer reputable Service Level Agreements. In 2014, Hybrid Grids gain traction in the high-tech web-scale shops but remain out of reach for most large enterprises. A few small service providers will begin to offer Hybrid Grid as-a-Service.
>> Partially correct. The rise of containers on Amazon and Google Kubernetes or managed containers is pushing this forward.


9. As we closed out 2013, the Target credit card breach was front-page news. Concerns around security and compliance are increasing in virtually every industry. Removing manual processes is seen as an easy way to implement tighter compliance and security. In 2014, companies will implement sandboxes within their cloud that focus on specific problems like PCI compliance. The DevOps processes will mandate that software 'run the gauntlet' (network segmentation, anti-virus, code inspections, encryption, etc.) to provide a safer environment. More security professionals will singing the praises of the cloud as a means to automate inspections, lock-down environments and provide audit trails.
>> #FAIL. I was thinking we'd see much more SecOps or RuggedOps - but this movement is still early. 

10. I anticipate that 2014 will be the year of "cloud in a box", where converged infrastructure solutions and cloud stacks are pre-packaged into turn-key rack/row clouds. Stripped down versions of OpenStack will be the preferred controller. We should expect the usual hardware vendors (Dell, HP, Cisco, EMC, etc.) to offer their own brand, as well as to offer hybrid solutions that leverage hardened cloud software from Red Hat, Canonical and others. Companies that once looked at vBlock or FlexPod open up their wallet. Organizations that avoided converged infrastructure continue to avoid it - but create their own reference architectures for their home-grown kits.
>> #FAIL. Damn. This should have happened by now ... maybe one of my friends at HP, Dell or IBM can comment on why it's taking so long. 

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Alright - I didn't do so hot in my 2014 predictions. Most of the stuff I still agree with - but we'll likely have to wait for 2015 or 2016. Here's to being patient!
Jeff

An FAQ on Cloud Consulting Companies

As CEO of MomentumSI, I get asked lots of questions about cloud consulting. Here's my attempt to answer some of the most Frequently Asked Questions!

How do you classify cloud consulting companies?

The first dimension is 'public cloud' or 'private cloud' (behind the firewall). The second dimension is the technology layer at which they work (IaaS, PaaS or SaaS). The third dimension is the speciality within the layer. For example, a services company might only work in 'public cloud at the SaaS layer' - but specialize in 'sales and marketing' solutions. The fourth dimension is the type of services that they provide. Some companies only do 'strategy and planning', while others will do 'training and mentoring', 'implementation' or 'managed cloud services'.

From a consulting perspective, which clouds are getting the most traction?

There are lots of clouds across the aforementioned dimensions. For IaaS + public cloud, Amazon is clearly in the lead. For IaaS + private cloud - the company that us selling the most deals is VMware - but the media darling / thought leader is OpenStack with an early lead going to the Red Hat distribution. On the PaaS side, I can't really give anyone credit for dominating the market. From a public PaaS perspective, you'd have to acknowledge Force.com + Heroku (Salesforce.com). On the private side, Cloud Foundry seems like an early thought leader - but it's way too early to tell. At the SaaS layer, we see lots of Salesforce.com, Workday, Microsoft (apps) and Google (apps). There are a ton of others getting traction - too many to mention.

Who are the boutique cloud consulting companies?

I have to mention my company first, MomentumSI. Our strategy was simple: initially, focus on public cloud (AWS / Google) with an emphasis on automation (think DevOps and Cloud Management activities: ServiceMesh, vCAC, Puppet, Chef, RunDeck, Docker, Ansible etc.) Recently, we're seeing an increased demand for OpenStack and VMware private cloud implementations.

Other notable boutiques include: Mirantis (Russian firm with core engineering expertise on OpenStack), Appirio / Bluewolf (focused on Salesforce.com), Cloud Sherpas (focused on Google Apps), 2nd Watch and Datapipe  (focused on AWS Managed Services).

Are the offshore I.T. companies involved in cloud?

Yes - but many of them are very early. Companies like Infosys, Cognizant, TCS, Wipro, HCL and EPAM were hired to develop enterprise software, maintain and operate it. They are being asked to help with lift and shift migration efforts - and in some cases, refactoring the applications to work better in the cloud. They focus on migrating 10's or 100's of applications for a single customer. This market is still early.

Are the Very Large consulting companies doing cloud work?

Yes and no. Many of them are doing true cloud consulting while others are classifying last-generation stuff (e.g., virtualization, hosting) work as 'cloud'. Traditionally, these companies are most commonly used for strategy and roadmap services. CSC, Dell Services and others have made some aggressive moves to build their offering but mostly focused building out their cloud, not on the consulting side. Capgemini made an early push but it's not clear to me if it has turned into a large piece of their business. IBM's acquisition of SoftLayer and subsequent push on BlueMix implies that they're playing to win. I'm confident that Accenture has done something - but I lack visibility into their efforts.

Are the hardware vendors doing cloud consulting?

I've witnessed Dell getting some interest in their OpenStack offering. I'd speculate that HP public sector will have some consulting drag-along related to data center modernization efforts - and eventually will see opportunities generated from Moonshot and USP. Both EMC and Cisco have access to a wonderful roster of infrastructure buyers. I've seen EMC in some interesting consulting deals; Cisco not so much. Hitachi, Fujitsu and other specialty shops are interested in breaking out of their molds but will likely require a more full-fledged transformation to make the jump.

Who is leading in public sector cloud consulting?

Despite the fact that I live outside of Washington D.C., I don't follow SLED/Fed. From what little I've actually witnessed, Booz-Allen has had some early wins. The larger defense contractors (Boeing, LMCO, Northrop, etc.) are playing their usual risk averse role. I don't have enough visibility to comment on SAIC, CACI, CGI, etc. ... well, maybe I could comment on CGI ;-)

What are the data center service and hosting companies doing?

Sungard has made a focused attempt to build out their cloud offerings including vendor neutral consulting. Unisys and Xerox/ACS both made an initial push - but it's unclear to me where the current offerings stand. Many of the traditional hosting companies like Rackspace, Verizon, AT&T and CenturyLink have built out their managed service offerings and will provide 'workload migration implementation'. Generally speaking,  most companies in this space are treating cloud like the fundamental threat that it is. They are creating inventive offerings that embrace new partners and approaches. In my opinion, not all of them will make the transition. Those vendors who don't adapt to the customer buying process will be most challenged. Failure to provide unbiased consulting, no hybrid cloud offering, etc. will push customers away.

What are the VAR's (Value Add Resellers) doing in the cloud?

The VAR's are often the first point of contact for purchasing hardware and software. They realize that if those purchases move to a cloud based model, the potential for disintermediation exists. Several VAR's have begun reselling cloud offerings like it was just another SKU. They leverage their large call centers, shopping portals and existing procurement vehicles/contracts to execute high volume, low-margin transactions. Generally speaking, the VAR's have partnered with focused consulting companies to perform the implementation work.

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Warning: This is just one opinion. If you need more data, I'd recommend the analysis of Lydia Leong (Gartner), Carl Brooks (451 Group) and James Staten (Forrester); they've all been following the cloud space since the inception. The CloudCast and the GigaOM Cloud sites are also very insightful. Visit MomentumSI for more information on our services.

2014 Cloud Predictions

Going into 2014, cloud computing (IaaS/PaaS) is the defacto model for start-ups and SaaS providers. It continues to gain acceptance in large organizations but remains nascent. Looking forward, I anticipate the following:

1. Amazon Web Services will continue to dominate as the leading provider of infrastructure-on-demand services. Like 2013, the number of new offerings will be smaller than previous years as much of the low-hanging fruit has been picked. More emphasis will go into stabilization and features to enable highly reliable computing (across regions).

2. In 2014, we will see OpenStack adoption in the enterprise in a more significant way. This will be both a blessing and a curse. Corporate Infrastructure & Operations teams will be challenged to create stable solutions around OpenStack. The premature release of poor products/code like Ceilometer, Heat and even Neutron will cause unnecessary pain. I&O teams will retreat to the most basic functionality. Those organizations who chose to use the open source bits and not license a commercial product based on OpenStack will rethink their decision. Issues related to a lack of quality and product management will continue to plague OpenStack throughout 2014, leaving the door wide open to VMware.

3. Organizations that were unhappy with the VMware software licensing fees remain unhappy but begin to see it as the 'stable solution'.

4. The excitement around containers continues to grow in 2013. The Docker model moves beyond early adopters into early majority for dev/test workloads. The way in which Chef/Puppet are used shifts from run-time stack creation to design-time creation, followed by image snapshots. This extends the emphasis on 'idempotent infrastructure'.

5. As 'idempotent infrastructure' for individual machines begins to feel like a solved problem, the focus shifts to multi-tiered, complex application architectures. A new emphasis is placed on orchestrating full stack solutions regardless of cloud API, hypervisor, operating system and configuration management tool. On-demand, full stack provisioning across dev-to-prod environments becomes doable by your average Joe. That said, TOSCA fails to get any traction due to unnecessary complexity, lack of practical applications and are beat to market by light-weight open source solutions.

6. More aggressive organizations implement resilience features into their cloud architectures. Systems move beyond the traditional auto-scale and adopt patterns to auto-heal tiers via closed loop monitors that re-provision failed systems and tiers implement run-time service discovery (to reconnect the topology).

7. As resilient architecture become more common, so does the need to test them. Variation of the Simian Army enter the Global 2000; instrumented systems capture data key metrics (MTTR, data loss, etc.) enabling architects to improve the integrity and availability of their solutions.

8. The Hybrid Grid is born. Unlike prior grid emphasis, the focus is on long-running services (not batch jobs). Unlike Hybrid Clouds, the focus is on uniform containers (think LXC/Docker) and resource schedulers that are "service first" not "machine first" enabling the grid controller to offer reputable Service Level Agreements. In 2014, Hybrid Grids gain traction in the high-tech web-scale shops but remain out of reach for most large enterprises. A few small service providers will begin to offer Hybrid Grid as-a-Service.

9. As we closed out 2013, the Target credit card breach was front-page news. Concerns around security and compliance are increasing in virtually every industry. Removing manual processes is seen as an easy way to implement tighter compliance and security. In 2014, companies will implement sandboxes within their cloud that focus on specific problems like PCI compliance. The DevOps processes will mandate that software 'run the gauntlet' (network segmentation, anti-virus, code inspections, encryption, etc.) to provide a safer environment. More security professionals will singing the praises of the cloud as a means to automate inspections, lock-down environments and provide audit trails.

10. I anticipate that 2014 will be the year of "cloud in a box", where converged infrastructure solutions and cloud stacks are pre-packaged into turn-key rack/row clouds. Stripped down versions of OpenStack will be the preferred controller. We should expect the usual hardware vendors (Dell, HP, Cisco, EMC, etc.) to offer their own brand, as well as to offer hybrid solutions that leverage hardened cloud software from Red Hat, Canonical and others. Companies that once looked at vBlock or FlexPod open up their wallet. Organizations that avoided converged infrastructure continue to avoid it - but create their own reference architectures for their home-grown kits.

In summary, we should expect the next set of adopters to hop on the wagon. They'll be frustrated by the amount of change and immaturity of solutions. Ultimately, they'll go back to the vendors they know and trust to help them through the pain. The patterns and practices are maturing - but the types of problems that we're throwing at the cloud are becoming more complex.

The cloud is here; there's no going back.
Happy 2014.