Last year at about this time, I posted my top 10 technologies for 2003. Overall, I'm pretty happy with my calls.
1. Business Process Execution Language (BPEL)
Yep, still a good call. In 2003, it became apparent that BPEL won the digital process language war. Look for adoption in 2004.
2. Web Services II / GXA
This referred to the ws-* stack. Good progress was made on standards - not much adoption.
3. Microsoft .Net
This was an easy call. MS .Net kicks ass - however their long development cycles on the tooling isn't helping.
4. Flash MX
OK, this one didn't really happen to the extent that I was predicting. Instead, I believe that we are seeing a general trend towards richer functionality user interfaces, some leveraging xml or web services.
5. Industry XML Standards
This one did OK, but could have done much better. I think that many of the standards bodies advanced their specifications and cleaned up their schemas.
6. Business Process Management (BPM)
OK, this was a bad call. BPM has sucked wind due to the 'architecture in a box' syndrome. BPEL with MDA will help.
Portlets did get off the ground - but no where near what I'd hoped. Perhaps next year?
8. Total Value of Opportunity (TVO)
Bad call. Does Gartner even promote this? It sure seemed like a good idea...
9. Software Asset Reuse
Terrible call. Software asset reuse requires a major change in the programming model.
10. Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL)
OK, this one actually got a bit of traction. However, I'm not sure if it was hype or actual usage.
HELP - I'm running out of time! I still have to write my top 10 enterprise software technologies for 2004. If you have ideas, please send them to me: jschneider AT momentumsoftware DOT com.