Thursday, May 11, 2006

The SOA Hype Cycle

There have been a series of articles recently either bashing SOA or identifying that it has hit "rock bottom". Most of the people who take the time to write this are actually pretty big fans of SOA. Here's my take - analyst, press and vendors all believe in the hype cycle and many of them believe in 'self-fulfilling prophecies'. I am of the opinion that certain individuals are attempting to prematurely force the 'trough of disillusionment'. The thinking is that if they can declare the bottom of the trough then we can move on to the 'slope of enlightenment'. We can't force the hype cycle - up or down. It will happen on its own.

IMHO, we are still early in the cycle - very early. We're no where near hitting the bottom. Prepare for more smack talk - more crapping on SOA, especially from vendors who don't have products to meet the market or enterprises who were too stupid to figure it out.

I am predicting that after rock bottom is hit, the uplift will be much quicker than most. The reason is simple: SOA has a network effect. When the service network hits critical mass the value of the network is too high to ignore. Most organizations aren't there yet - they have 10 to 50 services (and 11-51 clients). The reuse numbers will stink for some time. Like a network - you'll know when it hits critical mass - when it's too big to ignore.

If you're interested in the actual hype/activity curve, check out:

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