Here are my 2006 predictions:
1. Virtually no enterprise software companies will 'go public' in 2006.
2. U.S. based venture capital will continue a downward trend with enterprise software leading the pack.
3. An abnormally high number of small ISV's will fail to raise their next round of funding. However, their revenue will allow them to crawl forward forcing them to ask the 'startup euthanasia' question.
4. On average, large enterprise software companies market valuation will stagnate; small and medium sized companies will mostly go down except for brief periods of 'acquisition hype'.
5. The number of 'Software as a Service' providers increase substantially but find low revenue in 2006.
6. The competition between Big-5 and Big-I (Indian) consulting increases significantly setting up a 2007 consolidation scenario.
7. The Business Process Platform becomes the accepted standard as the foundation for enterprise software.
8. SOA continues as a major trend however more attention is focused on 'what to service orient' rather than 'how to service orient'.
9. Google continues to release new products in very short time frames. Microsoft takes notice but does not act.
10. Salesforce.com stock price drops by 50%.